Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.036152 0.041246 0.046838 0.053435 0.061015 0.069459 0.079593
2025-01-05 0.027001 0.033567 0.041443 0.051612 0.064431 0.080105 0.100800
2025-01-12 0.022365 0.029434 0.038430 0.050767 0.067327 0.088897 0.119308
2025-01-19 0.018704 0.025770 0.035202 0.048787 0.067978 0.094307 0.133489
2025-01-26 0.017168 0.024630 0.035021 0.050654 0.073770 0.106994 0.158906
2025-02-02 0.015921 0.023681 0.034900 0.052453 0.079498 0.120039 0.186252
2025-02-09 0.014869 0.022854 0.034803 0.054176 0.085176 0.133478 0.215669
2025-02-16 0.013493 0.021359 0.033501 0.053832 0.087496 0.141830 0.237806
2025-02-23 0.012458 0.020274 0.032693 0.054131 0.090794 0.151976 0.263964
2025-03-02 0.011359 0.018961 0.031369 0.053400 0.092224 0.159056 0.285519
2025-03-09 0.010723 0.018349 0.031125 0.054443 0.096760 0.171864 0.318712
2025-03-16 0.009900 0.017332 0.030087 0.053966 0.098500 0.179813 0.343737
2025-03-23 0.009500 0.017037 0.030305 0.055823 0.104807 0.196987 0.388979
2025-03-30 0.008590 0.015740 0.028618 0.053994 0.103991 0.200679 0.408105
2025-04-06 0.007912 0.014805 0.027497 0.053102 0.104851 0.207631 0.434615
2025-04-13 0.007156 0.013650 0.025856 0.051026 0.103113 0.209165 0.449809
2025-04-20 0.006959 0.013554 0.026226 0.052983 0.109791 0.228620 0.506336
2025-04-27 0.006764 0.013442 0.026551 0.054870 0.116508 0.248874 0.567267
2025-05-04 0.006571 0.013315 0.026827 0.056677 0.123234 0.269866 0.632647
2025-05-11 0.006175 0.012735 0.026128 0.056316 0.125128 0.280311 0.674274
2025-05-18 0.005875 0.012329 0.025754 0.056629 0.128568 0.294630 0.727232
2025-05-25 0.005503 0.011738 0.024935 0.055863 0.129423 0.302994 0.766293
2025-06-01 0.005316 0.011533 0.024932 0.056956 0.134783 0.322690 0.837235